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短期国内工业纯碱市场仍承受一定下行压力

编辑:山东合展化工有限公司时间:2021-04-09

     上周,国(guo)(guo)内工业纯碱(jian)(jian)(jian)市(shi)场(chang)(chang)陷入低(di)(di)迷,市(shi)场(chang)(chang)成交重心继续下移。近(jin)期(qi)维(wei)修厂(chang)家不(bu)多(duo),纯碱(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)家整体启动负荷(he)维(wei)持在80%。下游(you)需求疲软(ruan),部分(fen)下游(you)纯碱(jian)(jian)(jian)产品开工不(bu)足(zu),纯碱(jian)(jian)(jian)消耗减少。纯碱(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)家库(ku)存高(gao),厂(chang)家出货压力不(bu)减,收到的(de)出货订单比较灵活(huo),市(shi)场(chang)(chang)低(di)(di)成本商品供应(ying)增加。市(shi)场(chang)(chang)信(xin)心不(bu)足(zu),短(duan)期(qi)内国(guo)(guo)内纯碱(jian)(jian)(jian)市(shi)场(chang)(chang)仍有一定(ding)下行(xing)压力。

  近年(nian)来,国内纯(chun)碱行(xing)业普遍亏损,但由(you)于(yu)不同原因(yin)检(jian)修厂家(jia)不多,行(xing)业供需形势严峻,市场的价格承压下行(xing)。

  受国(guo)内公(gong)共卫生事件影(ying)响,春节后纯碱厂家(jia)开(kai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)负荷(he)一直下调(diao)至72.4%。从2月(yue)中(zhong)下旬(xun)开(kai)始工(gong)(gong)(gong)业纯碱厂家(jia)开(kai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)负荷(he)较快的提(ti)升,3月(yue)份(fen)开(kai)始国(guo)内纯碱厂家(jia)开(kai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)负荷(he)已经恢(hui)复至去(qu)(qu)年同期(qi)正常水平。本周(zhou)国(guo)内纯碱厂家(jia)加权平均(jun)开(kai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)负荷(he)在85.6%,较上(shang)周(zhou)提(ti)升0.6个百分(fen)点,与去(qu)(qu)年同期(qi)基(ji)本持(chi)平。

  进入3月份,国(guo)内纯碱市场阴跌为主,市场成交(jiao)重心缓慢下移(yi)。本(ben)月纯碱价(jia)格下滑30-50元(yuan)(yuan)/吨(dun),国(guo)内轻碱主流终(zhong)端(duan)价(jia)格在1380-1550元(yuan)(yuan)/吨(dun),重碱主流终(zhong)端(duan)价(jia)格在1400-1600元(yuan)(yuan)/吨(dun)(低(di)端(duan)现汇)。

  价格(ge)下(xia)行的(de)(de)原因主(zhu)要由以(yi)下(xia)几方面:一,公共卫生(sheng)事件在全球(qiu)发(fa)展,经(jing)济前(qian)景黯(an)淡,经(jing)济下(xia)行压力(li)较大,终端消费(fei)低迷;二,供应面压力(li)较大,纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)开工(gong)(gong)(gong)负(fu)(fu)(fu)荷维持(chi)在8成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)以(yi)上(shang),另有(you)进(jin)口货(huo)源进(jin)入市(shi)场(chang);三(san),消费(fei)不旺,导(dao)致(zhi)纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)多(duo)(duo)数下(xia)游产品面临需(xu)求萎(wei)缩、库存增加、资金趋紧的(de)(de)问题。浮法玻(bo)璃厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)持(chi)续限产中,珠(zhu)三(san)角印染厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)开工(gong)(gong)(gong)仅有(you)3-4成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng),玻(bo)璃瓶(ping)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)开工(gong)(gong)(gong)5成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)左右,三(san)聚磷酸钠开工(gong)(gong)(gong)14.85%……虽然近期煤炭、原盐价格(ge)有(you)所下(xia)降,但纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)价格(ge)持(chi)续下(xia)行,氨碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)普遍亏(kui)损。前(qian)期氯(lv)(lv)化铵(an)(an)市(shi)场(chang)行情好转,价格(ge)上(shang)涨,联(lian)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)氯(lv)(lv)化铵(an)(an)订单足,部分(fen)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)表示已经(jing)接单至(zhi)4月底。部分(fen)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本控制较好的(de)(de)联(lian)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)尚不亏(kui)损,但多(duo)(duo)数联(lian)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)亦(yi)亏(kui)损运行。开工(gong)(gong)(gong)负(fu)(fu)(fu)荷对生(sheng)产成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本有(you)鲜(xian)明的(de)(de)影响,氨碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)多(duo)(duo)为(wei)大型国企,需(xu)要承担(dan)一定(ding)社会责任,多(duo)(duo)数联(lian)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)有(you)一定(ding)氯(lv)(lv)化铵(an)(an)订单需(xu)要交付,天然碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)厂(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)家(jia)微利运行,导(dao)致(zhi)纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)行业开工(gong)(gong)(gong)负(fu)(fu)(fu)荷难以(yi)下(xia)降。

  目前(qian)国内工业(ye)纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)厂家(jia)整(zheng)体库(ku)(ku)(ku)存在(zai)120万吨以上(shang)(含部分厂家(jia)港口及(ji)外库(ku)(ku)(ku)库(ku)(ku)(ku)存),库(ku)(ku)(ku)存天数达15天以上(shang),部分企业(ye)仍不(bu)能做到(dao)产销平衡。公(gong)共(gong)卫(wei)生事件(jian)对内需(xu)及(ji)外贸均产生一(yi)定影(ying)响,需(xu)求不(bu)振(zhen),终(zhong)端用户坚持随用随采,对纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)价格压价力(li)度(du)不(bu)减。供需(xu)形势严峻(jun),短期(qi)国内纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)市场承受一(yi)定下(xia)行压力(li)。在(zai)需(xu)求难有好(hao)转的(de)情况下(xia),需(xu)关注纯(chun)(chun)(chun)碱(jian)厂家(jia)开(kai)工情况变动。